Preview of the Serie A Peak Showdown: Juventus VSAC Milan - The new coach s life-and-death game between firefighting and incomplete lineup

At 2:45 am on October 6, 2025 (Note: According to schedule information, it will be adjusted to the actual kick-off time), the 6th round of Serie A will usher in the "Italy National Derby" level focus battle - Juventus will face AC Milan at the Allianz Stadium. This showdown was given special significance due to the change of coaches on both sides and the serious injury wave: Juventus was led by interim coach Montero rushingly, while Milan struggled to fill loopholes in the defense line under the new coach. The collision of the broken lineup and tactical tests made this traditional giant showdown full of unknowns.

1. Panoramic analysis of the head coach: a showdown between being ordered and system reconstruction in the face of danger

(I) Juventus coach: Marco Montero - "Youth Godfather" who put out the fire

After Allegri was dismissed due to the Italian Cup controversy in May 2024, the youth team coach Montero was pushed to the front line, and his coaching style showed a distinct "transitional trait":

Conservative tactics seek stability: Continuing Juventus' traditional 3-4-2-1 formation, but significantly reducing offensive risk. His average ball possession rate this season has dropped to 52% (58% last season), and he relies more on "defensive counterattack + set pieces" to score. 40% of the goals in his last 3 games have come from set pieces.

Injury response shortcomings: Faced with injuries such as Bremer and Milik, Montero lacks a mature replacement plan and can only promote youth training players or use marginal new players, resulting in an in-depth emergency in the rotation of defense line.

On-the-spot adjustment limitations: As an interim coach, his substitution decisions have become more cautious. He has averaged only 1.7 substitutions after 60 minutes this season, and the threatening passes contributed by substitutes account for only 12% of the team. It may be difficult to effectively respond to Milan's second half impact.

(II) AC Milan head coach: "Dismantle the East and the West" after the new coach took office

Milan completed the change of coach after termination of Pioli's contract early in July 2024 (the original contract was until June 2025). The new coach continued the 3-5-2 formation framework, but due to the loss of lineup, he was forced to adjust his tactics:

Defensive line restructuring logic: Inteo Hernandez switched to Riyadh Crescent and Kalulu joined Juventus, and was forced to use the central defender combination of Tomori and Gabiya, supplemented by new player Bad Saji as a guest wingback, and strengthened the tactical design of "left-wingback return to defend and cut in" to try to cover up the loopholes on the wing.

Offensive Reliance Core: Set Pulisic as the offensive core and build a "splitting + back-spin" tactic around him. He has contributed 4 key passes in his last 3 games, but due to the lack of strength of the forward partner, his conversion rate is only 18%.

Substitute tactical highlights: retaining the "substitute attack" tradition of Pioli's era, and planning to use Leo to attack Juventus' declining defense line after 65 minutes. Leo averaged 1.2 threatening opportunities per game after appearing on the bench this season, which is a potential winner.

2, 2025's latest lineup ultimate prediction: Incomplete puzzle under the injury wave

(I) Juventus: 3-4-2-1 (passive persistence in the incomplete defense line)

According to the comprehensive information of Sky Sports and WhoScored on October 4, Juventus added new players to the injury list, and the starting lineup was forced to "dismantle the east and make up for the rest":

Starting lineup (new aid bid *, injury bid ❌):

Goalkeeper: 1 - Digregorio (main force, save success rate 74%)

Defender: 2 - Joao Mario * (right back, loan from Everton, averaged 1.3 clearances per game), 3 - Gatti (central defender, striving for success rate 76%), 5 - Kelly (center-back, Bremer, 0.9 interceptions per game)

[Injury List]: 4 - Bremer❌ (knee injury, return in November), 6 - Danilo❌ (muscle strain), 19 - Bonucci❌ (old injury recurred)

Midfielder: 8 - McKenny (right wingback, forced to play cameo, 1.1 forward pass per game), 10 - Locatelli (back midfielder, 89% pass success rate), 12 - Tulam (back midfielder, 2.1 steals per game), 11 - Cambiaso (left wingback, 3 assists/season)

Front midfielder: 7 - Koncesan❌ (injury, substitute: 20 - Ilditz, 19-year-old star, averaged 0.8 passes), 22 - Koeman (front midfielder, return on loan, 3 key passes / court)

Forward: 9 - Vlahovic (center, 5 goals / season, 3 goals in Milan's career)

Bench: 16 - Facioli (midfielder, just recovered from injury), 25 - Rabio (back midfielder, defensive rotation), 30 - Sassuolo (forward, youth training promotion)

Montero's fatal dilemma: Right back Joao Mario is a temporary loan "fire-fighter". He started hastily after only three rounds, and his return to defense speed was insufficient (3 times broken by his opponent in the last round); central defender Kelly is the fourth pick, and his cross from the wing against Milan is likely to expose his air defense shortcomings, which is also Montero's additional training before the game The core reason for hourly set pieces defense.

(II) AC Milan: 3-5-2 (tactical compromise of blood loss on the flank)

Milan is limited by the summer window, and the lineup is seriously insufficient. The new coach can only use the mix of "veteran + new star":

Starting lineup (new aid bid *, injury bid ❌):

Goalkeeper: 16 - Menion (main force, save success rate 81%, top three in Serie A)

Defender: 23 - Tomori (central defender, just resumed joint training, and the success rate of top-scoring is 78%), 20 - Gabiya (central defender, averaged 1.5 clearances per game), 3 - Pavlovic (central defender, substitute, averaged 0.7 interceptions per game)

Midfielder: 18 - Salmacoles (right wingback, 3 assists/season), 4 - Fifana (back midfielder, 86% pass success rate), 8 - Modric (midfielder, loan-to-loan, 38 years old, averaging 2.4 key passes per game), 10 - Renato Sanchez (midfielder, 1.8 steals per game), 2 - Battersage * (left wingback, 19-year-old star, forced to start, cross accuracy of 32%)

Forwards: 11 - Pulisic (forward, 3 goals and 2 assists), 19 - Gimenes (forward, loan-to-loan, 2 goals/season)

Injury list: 7 - Leo ⚠️ (minor injury, substitute standby, appear in 70 minutes), 12 - Florenzi❌ (right knee injury), 15 - Chukueze❌ (muscle strain)

Bench: 9 - Okafore❌ (injury, substitute: 27 - Romero, Argentina star, averaged 0.5 goals per game), 32 - Sportiello (goalkeeper), 40 - Gabia (back, rotation option)

Tactical adventure of the new coach: left-wing defender Bad Saji is a rising star promoted from U19. He has only made one appearance this season, and he has almost no experience in facing Juventus' right impact; although Modric still has control, his physical fitness can only support 60 minutes of high-intensity confrontation, and the midfield connection may be "interrupted".

3. The key landing point of the coach's duel and lineup game

(I) Montero's defense is dead-breaking VS The new coach's wing raid

Juventus' interim coach plans to deal with the Milan impact with "5 defenders variants": let McKennie retreat to assist the right side, forming a intensive defense of "four defenders + single midfielder", but this will lead to further weakening of midfield control - Juventus' midfield loss rate has reached 43% in the last 3 games, and it is very likely to be passively beaten against Modric's dispatch. Milan's new coach accurately targeted Juventus's shortcomings on the right, and arranged for Salmacoles to increase the number of forward attempts per game to 2.8 times, and cooperated with Pulisic's inward cut to form a "double double-team". This combination created 4 threatening opportunities in the last round.

(II) Core match: Vlahovic's "Milan Nemesis" attribute vs Tomori's Redemption Battle

Vlahovic scored 3 goals against Milan in four career times, of which 2 of which came from headers. His shooting rate remained 63% this season, but due to insufficient midfield support, he averaged averaging from 4.1 to 2.8 times. Tomori just recovered from injury. Although he had outstanding ability to compete for the top, his movement speed dropped by 15%. Faced with Vlahovic's back turn, it is very likely that his flaws will be exposed. This is also the core reason why Milan's new coach arranged for Gabria to assist in defense.

(III) Substitute power: Leo's "win-lossing hand" value VS Juventus' injury puzzle

Milan's biggest advantage is on the bench: Although Leo is on standby with a minor injury, his breakthrough on the flank (2.3 passes per game) is Juventus' temporary defense "nightmare". Last season, he broke through Juventus 4 times in a single game and assisted to score. Only Faggioli's bench has just recovered from injury, and his physical fitness and condition are not at the best. Montero's substitution adjustment is almost unavailable.

4. Score prediction: The stalemate situation led by injury and the new coach

Combined with the incompleteness of the lineup and tactical shortcomings of both sides, it is difficult to have a big victory scene in this game, and the probability of a draw and a small victory dominates:

1-1 draw (42% probability): Vlahovic headed the ball with a set piece (Juvent of set piece scored 22%), Milan replaced Leo in the second half to break through and crossed, Gimenes equalized in front of the goal. Both sides exposed loopholes in the defense but were unable to expand the score.

1-0 Juventus wins a small victory (30% probability): Vlahovic scored with a long flyby with Locatelli, Montero retreated in the second half, Menion made a great save many times but was unable to make up for the situation. Juventus narrowly won by relying on "personal ability of the star + home advantage".

0-1 Milan's away win (23% probability): Tomori's key clearance resolved Vlahovic's single shot, Leo broke through and assisted Pulisic to score after making a substitute, and Juventus' right defense was completely broken through.

The probability of a big victory is less than 5%. The core is that both sides lack deep lineup support to continue attacking. The injury and the shortcomings of the new coach's on-the-spot experience will dominate the stalemate of the game.

5. Conclusion: The battle of dignity of the incomplete wealthy families

This showdown has long been separated from the category of "peak contest" and has become a realistic game between "injury and firefighting" and "new coach trial and error": Juventus relies on Flajovic's personal ability to support, while Milan relies on Leo's substitute impact to find vitality; Montero's conservatism is in sharp contrast with the adventure of Milan's new coach, but ultimately it is subject to the incomplete lineup.

For Juventus, this game is a key test for Montero's "turning into a regular basis"; for Milan, scoring away points will determine the trust of the new coach. But no matter what the result is, the lineup pieced up under the injury wave makes this traditional derby less exciting and more realistic helplessness - perhaps as the Italian media said: "This is not the best Juventus and Milan, but it is still the most touching collision in Serie A."

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