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Asian Cup Final Four Team Prediction: Australia s unique position, Chinese men s basketball team is likely to compete with South Korea

3:41am, 12 August 2025【Basketball】

All group stages of the men's basketball Asian Cup have ended. Four of the 16 teams participating in the competition have been eliminated (Qatar, Syria, India, Iraq), and four teams have entered the quarterfinals early (Australia, Iran, China, and New Zealand). The remaining eight teams will enter the playoffs and compete for the last four quarter-finals. This article will analyze the situation of the semi-finals of this Asian Cup based on the knockout schedule and the strength of each team. Look at which teams are most likely to enter the semifinals. The overall level of the Asian Cup team is at a relatively low level in the world. The addition of teams like Australia to Asia is simply a dimensional reduction blow. They won the Asian championship in the last Asian Cup.

Although Australia only sent two teams to participate, there were no active NBA players in the team. However, most players come from the NBL league in Australia, and the level of this league is much higher than that of the CBA. McVeigh, 29, the main front of the team, is an NBA fringe player. He averaged 16.2 points per game in the NBAG League last season. His participation in the Asian Cup is the only one. 22-year-old defender Galloway, from the NBL Sydney Kings, averaged 18 points per game in three group games.

And this Australian team is not strong at a single scoring point, but everyone is very strong. The overall tactical rotation and the rotation speed are far better than other opponents.

From the schedule, Australia will wait for the winner between Saudi Arabia and the Philippines after advancing to the quarterfinals early. No matter who these two teams are, they cannot pose a threat to Australia.

So in the top four places, Australia will definitely lock in a seat!

Theoretically, the last remaining three places will be generated among the nine teams. They are China, South Korea, Guam, New Zealand, Japan, Lebanon, Iran, Chinese Taipei, and Jordan. Among these nine teams, except for Guam, the 88th world ranking, who is weak. The other eight teams have little difference in strength. If they perform differently on the spot, it is likely to directly determine the game trend. Therefore, if these eight teams are put together, it is difficult to judge which team can enter the semi-finals.

So according to the knockout match system, we divide these nine teams into three groups, and then analyze the quota of the semi-finals.

divided into three groups will be

1, China, South Korea, and Guam.

2, New Zealand, Japan, Lebanon.

3, Iran, Chinese Taipei, Jordan team. The situation in Group 1

The Chinese men's basketball team ranked first in the group stage in three wins, advanced to the quarterfinals early, and then needed to wait for the winner between South Korea and Guam.

Korean team (A2) and Guam (B3), there is still a certain gap in strength between these two teams.

The South Korean team is currently ranked 53rd in the world, and Guam is only 88. In fact, Guam can advance to the playoffs. Mainly they are in Group B, and there is a Syrian team that is weaker than Guam. Therefore, the editor is more optimistic about South Korea's advancement in the competition between these two teams.

Then the Chinese team will directly decide a semi-finals against South Korea.

It's hard to say which of these two teams wins. Although the South Korean team has begun to decline in recent years, they made 22 three-pointers in the group stage against Lebanon, with a three-point shooting percentage of nearly 60%.

If the Chinese team wants to defeat South Korea, they need to strengthen their external defense. As long as they limit their opponents' three-pointers, we can play their inside advantage.

Personally optimistic about the Chinese men's basketball team's advance to the semi-finals

The situation in the second group

New Zealand entered the semi-finals ahead of schedule, just like the Chinese team, and needed to wait for the winner between Japan and Lebanon.

The strength of Japan and Lebanon is equally good, and it is also the two strongest teams in the entire play-offs. Japan currently ranks 21 in the world and Lebanon 29 in terms of ranking alone. The strength of the two teams is not much different.

The Japanese men's basketball team's playing style is mainly "small, fast, and accurate". Lebanon highlights personal abilities and is good at physical confrontation. The two teams are completely different styles of basketball, and it is hard to judge who can win the battle between them.

, and the New Zealand team is currently ranked 22nd in the world, even lower than the Japanese team. So no matter whether New Zealand will play against either of Japan and Lebanon, it is impossible to win easily.

So this second group is the most difficult to predict. If you really want to predict a wave, I would still be a little optimistic about New Zealand.

The situation in Group 3

The Iranian team won three consecutive games and advanced to the quarterfinals early, and they need to wait for the winner between Chinese Taipei and Jordan.

Chen Yingjun, the core player of Chinese Taipei, performed too much, and scored 34 points in the first match against the Philippines, which once made people feel the déjà vu as the number one defender in Asia. Unfortunately, Iraq actually played in World War II and scored 0 points in 19 minutes, and scored only 4 points in New Zealand in the third game, resulting in the team's defeat of 78:118 as many as 41 points.

And Jordan did not perform well in the group stage, and he won 7 points with just 91:84, and then lost against Saudi Arabia and China.

In contrast, except for the 78:70 victory over Japan in the three group matches, the other two games were big wins outside the 20-year-old.

So, no matter which teams advance, it is difficult to pose a threat to Iran.

Based on the above analysis, the editor personally believes that the top four teams will eventually be Australia, China, New Zealand and Iran.

source:livescore 7cn