Red and Blue Fate Showdown: Who can break the "draw curse" tonight in Chelsea vs. Manchester United?

1. Historical grievances: From "five consecutive draws to the vicious circle" to the recent suppression of the Red Devils

(I) The last 10 encounters: tied together and counterattacked with the Red Devils

Manchester United and Chelsea's record in the last 10 matches showed that Manchester United had an advantage of 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss, among which between the 20-21 season and 22-23 season, they shook hands and made peace in five consecutive league games, which can be called a "professional draw". However, in the latest encounter, Manchester United defeated Chelsea 4-1 at home in the 2022-2023 season, and players such as Casemiro and Rashford made contributions, breaking the previous draw circle. Judging from historical data, the two teams are in a very stalemate offense and defense. They only scored 1 more goal (16-15) in the last 10 games against Manchester United, but the stability on the defensive end is slightly better.

(II) Overall record of the Premier League: The Blues have a slight advantage but are hard to tell the difference

In the history of 61 Premier League matches, Chelsea has 18 wins, 17 draws, 26 losses, scored 74 goals and conceded 75 goals. The difference in the winners and losses and the number of gains and losses is almost the same, which can be called a "mirror showdown". It is worth noting that Manchester United's home win rate against Chelsea at Old Trafford is 42%, while Chelsea's home win rate is 38%. Both sides' home advantage is not obvious, which also lays the suspense for the battle at Stamford Bridge tonight.

2. Recent situation analysis: The Blues fought for four life and death vs. The Red Devils rotated to train

(I) Chelsea: The dragons at home urgently need to stop the decline and stabilize the Champions League seat

Chelsea currently ranks fifth in the Premier League with 63 points, only one step away from the Champions League zone. If you win in this game, you will likely be locked in the top five. The team has performed strongly at home recently, with 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the last 10 leagues, and has defeated Liverpool and Tottenham, but lost 0-2 to Newcastle in the last round, ending five consecutive victories in all competitions. The offensive end relies on the outbreak of Cole Palmer (19 goals and 12 assists), but the top scorer Jackson was suspended and Nkunku was reimbursed for the season, and the depth of the front line was facing a test; the defensive end has only conceded 11 goals in the last 15 games, and the central defender combination of Coolibali and Badiacile needs to be alert to Manchester United's counterattack.

(II) Manchester United: Giving up the league due to injury waves, they are fully preparing for the Europa League

Manchester United ranked 16th with 39 points, no desire, and will usher in the UEFA Cup final next week, and there is a high probability of rotating the lineup in this game. The team has been a disaster in the recent league. It has not won 2 draws and 5 losses in the last 7 rounds, and has been unable to win four away games. It has been full of loopholes on the defensive end and has averaged 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 rounds. The main central defenders such as Lisandro Martinez and Dricht have been reimbursed for the season, and they were forced to use the "Xuanming Two Elders" combination of Maguire + Lindelof. However, there are still highlights on the offensive end. Hoylund made his comeback partner with Garnacho, and the counterattack speed threat still exists. B Fei's set-piece technique is still a powerful tool to break the deadlock.

3. Lineup game: tactical addition and subtraction for core injury

(I) Chelsea: Midfield strangling depends on "Enzo core"

It is expected that Chelsea will line up a 4-2-3-1 formation, Enzo Fernandez and Kessedo will form a midfield double gate. The former is responsible for scheduling and organizing (average 82.3 passes, with a success rate of 91%), and the latter is a role in interception (average 2.8 steals per game). Cucurella and Rees James' crosses on the wing (7.5 per game per game) will focus on Manchester United's right-hand side - After Dalot's absence, young player Heaton's sense of defensive position is doubtful. The front line is Pedro Neto, and more retracements are needed to catch the ball, forming a "two-for-one" cooperation with the front midfielder Palmer.

(II) Manchester United: Can the three central defender system withstand the high pressure of the Blues

Manchester United may change the lineup 3-4-2-1, Maguire, Lindelof and Evans form the three central defenders, relying on the barrier role of midfielder Ugath (3.1 interceptions per game). Fischer B will be on the premise of the film forward and form a "quick-up triangle" with Garnacho and Hoylund, using the gap behind Chelsea's wingback to hit the back - Manchester United's counterattack accounted for 32% this season, higher than Chelsea's 25%. But the midfield control is weak (53.1% per game, 12th in the Premier League), and may be subject to continuous oppression by the Blues, resulting in turnovers.

4. Focus showdown: Three key factors determine the direction of the game

(I) Settings offense and defense: Blues' killer vs Red Devils' goal

Chelsea scored 18 set pieces this season (3rd in the Premier League), Palmer's free kick (6 goals) and corner kick tactics (12 goals) pose great threats; while Manchester United's set pieces defense loopholes have obvious loopholes, conceded 4 goals in the last 5 rounds of set pieces, and Maguire's head clearance success rate is only 65%, which is lower than the average level of the Premier League central defender. If the Blues can create a set ball at the front of the penalty area, it may become the key to breaking the deadlock.

(II) Midfielder strangle: Enzo vs. B Fee's core matchup

Enzo Fernandez averaged 3.2 key passes per game this season, creating top offensive capabilities; Bruno Fernandez leads Manchester United with 8 assists and is good at accurate long passes from a long distance (successful 4.7 long passes per game). The two's midfield control battle will directly determine the rhythm of the offensive and defensive conversion of the two teams - if Chelsea can limit B Fee to catch the ball, Manchester United's offensive efficiency will drop by 40% (data from OPTA).

(III) Fighting intention and rotation: The Blues fight against the back-to-back vs. The Red Devils stayed in the Europa League

Chelsea faced a life-and-death battle for the Champions League qualification. Coach Pochettino clearly stated before the game that "all main players attacked"; and Manchester United has confirmed to rotate 7 main players, and core players such as Martial and Rashford will be on standby. Historical data shows that when the gap in the last round of the Premier League is more than 3 levels, the winning rate of the advantaged party reaches 68%, but you need to be wary of the Red Devils' "sad soldiers will win" mentality - Before the 2019 Champions League reversed Paris, Manchester United League was rotated to lose 0-2 to Wolves, and then a miracle was staged..

5. Results prediction: The Blues have a high probability of winning a small victory. Beware of the Red Devils' counterattack and stealing points. Combined with the state, injuries and fighting spirit of the two teams, Chelsea's probability of winning at home is about 60%, and the score may be 2-1 or 1-0: The Blues suppress Manchester United through midfield control, and use set pieces or crosses from the wing to score by Palmer and Enzo; Manchester United relies on Hoylund's high-altitude work or Garnacho's speed to counterattack to win a goal. But it should be noted that if Manchester United plays a bus and defends it, it may copy the 0-0 draw script of the 20-21 season - after all, the two teams have had 6 draws in the last 9 Premier League matches, and the "draw gene" is still at slightest.

No matter what the result is, this red and blue showdown is destined to be full of tension: is it Chelsea that stepped on Manchester United's shoulders to enter the Champions League, or is it that Manchester United used an upset to warm up the Europa League final? The answer will be announced tonight at Stamford Bridge.