[Lame Football - Today s Heart Water] Monday, September 8: 4 football matches Heart Water Direction

Monday 004 World Cup qualifiers: Croatia vs Montenegro

Croatia:

Croatia has been in a stable state recently, with three consecutive wins in the World Cup qualifiers and scoring 13 goals and conceding only 1 goal. The offensive end Perisic (Eindhoven) and Kramalic (Hoffenheim) have extremely efficient forward combination. The two have contributed a total of 18 goals this season. The midfield is controlled by Modric (Milan) and Kovacic (Manchester City), and averages 6.2 key passes per game, and its control is firmly at the forefront of Europe. However, the defense suffered a devastating blow – main center backs Gvadior (knee ligament injury) and Schutalo (muscular strain) were out, substitute center backs Pongrasic (Fiorentina) and Elledi (central Jutland) were slow to turn (1.7 seconds average), and could be hit behind by Montenegro’s counterattack. However, the team has a significant home advantage, with 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10 World Cup qualifiers, averaging 2.3 goals per game, and Zagreb's natural turf is more conducive to the execution of pass-by tactics.

Croatia will take over the midfield technical advantages to dominate the ball, break the high-level pressing through Modric's retreat organization, and use Perisic (58% breakthrough success rate on the left) and Kramalic (12% higher than the main force after 60 minutes) to tear the defense line. Settings are an important weapon - the team's settings score rate is 38% (third in Europe), and central defender Akanji (Manchester City) has a 76% success rate in heading, and may complete a fatal blow in a corner or free kick. In addition, substitute winger Kramalic has made 1.6 successful breakthroughs per game in the last three games, which can target the Black Mountain wing physical fitness shortcomings (the defensive interception success rate dropped from 62% to 45% after 60 minutes).

Montenegro

Montenegro has been in a state of ups and downs recently, with 2 wins and 2 losses in the World Cup, and his away performance was particularly bad (1 win, 0 draw, 5 losses in the last 6 away games), and has only scored 13 goals in the last 15 games, averaging 0.9 goals per game, and overly relied on striker Jovitic (Fenerbahce) - he contributed 70% of the team's goals, and other players have not scored more than 1 goal in the national team this season. The midfield interception ability is weak (only 4.8 steals per game), and it is easy to collapse when facing Croatia's high-pressure press. Although the defense showed resilience in the UEFA Nations League (28 clearances per game, leading the European league), main central defender Savic (Atle Madrid) was absent for at least 8 weeks due to muscle contusion, and the success rate of substitute central defender Vujasic's high-altitude top-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-square-squa

Montshan is likely to adopt a 5-4-1 deep defensive formation, trying to find counterattack opportunities through densely concentrated field interceptions (12.3 per game) and fast transfers. But the physical fitness problems of midfielder Longkar (Ghent) (the second half running distance dropped by 15%) may affect the coherence of counterattacks, and goalkeeper Serfirovic (Podgorica)'s historical save rate against Perisic is only 40%, which poses a hidden danger. The offensive end relies too much on crosses from the wing (16 per game, 28% success rate) and set-pieces, but in the face of Croatia’s high press, the counterattack launch frequency may drop to 1.5 times/game.

Summary

Croatia has a high probability of controlling the rhythm of the game with its overall strength, home court advantages and psychological advantages in historical confrontation. Despite the hidden dangers in the defense line, Montenegro's weak offensive and weak away games are unlikely to pose a substantial threat.