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5 teams compete for 3 places, the competition for Premier League Champions League qualification is getting stronger

7:42am, 14 May 2025【Football】

In the 36th round of the Premier League matches held in the early morning of May 11, with Manchester City dating Southampton 0-0 and Aston Villa defeating Bournemouth 1-0, the competition for Champions League qualification next season has become extremely fierce. In addition to Arsenal almost locking in the spot, Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest will make the final sprint for the remaining three Champions League places.

Needless to say, Liverpool, which has won the championship ahead of schedule, according to Opta's statistics, Arsenal is almost certain to end the top five of this season with a probability of 99.7%. They currently rank second in the standings with 67 points. They only need to score 2 points in the next three games to ensure a top five position, without considering the results of other opponents. Manchester City needs to go all out

Manchester City coach Guardiola said the team needs to "fight to the last moment" and regard the next three games as the finals. Manchester City's latest match against Southampton ended 0-0, which complicated their situation. Despite this, Manchester City is still third with 65 points and is evaluated by Opta with a 91.3% chance of qualifying for the Champions League next season with its outstanding goal difference.

Aston Villa faces challenges

In contrast, Aston Villa's prospects appear less optimistic. Although they currently have 63 points with Newcastle and Chelsea, due to one extra game and a clear goal difference disadvantage, Opta gives the probability of promotion only 34.1%. Next, Villa will face Tottenham Hotspur at home and then challenge Manchester United away.

Chelsea and Newcastle's chances

Chelsea are evaluated by Opta to have a 67.9% chance to qualify for the Champions League, but they face a tough schedule, including matches against Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest.

Newcastle's probability of promotion is slightly higher, reaching 69.3%.

Nottingham Forest is eager to return to glory

For Nottingham Forest, this is the first time since winning the championship in 1980 that it has had the opportunity to return to the Champions League stage. Although the probability of promotion being evaluated by Opta is only 37.7%, the team is still full of hope. They are about to face challenges from Leicester City (East Midlands Derby), West Ham United and Chelsea.