July 9th Number of goals Score Winning and Losing Forecast reference.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Madrid Event Analysis:

Event Positioning and Historical Context: This Club World Cup semi-final on July 9, 2025 is not only a direct dialogue between the defending Champions League champion Paris Saint-Germain and the Champions League historical overlord Real Madrid, but also a smart game between two tactical masters, Luis Enrique and Xavi Alonso. Paris swept Inter Milan 5-0 and set the biggest score difference in history in the Champions League final, while Real Madrid completed the transformation from a "Galaxy Battleship" to a "Iron-Blooded Machine" under the leadership of Alonso. Real Madrid has 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last six Champions League matches, but Paris has a better offense and defensive dominance this season (average of 2.9 goals and conceded 0.4 goals) this season.

Recent status and data comparison: Paris Saint-Germain: 5 wins and 1 loss in the last 6 games, 4 wins and 1 loss in the Club World Cup, averaging 7.3 positive shots, 61.9 dangerous attacks per game, and 5 consecutive clean sheets on the defensive end (except 0-1 loss to Bottafogo). The "New Trident" composed of Dembele, Kvaratskhelia and Douai contributed 16 goals and 9 assists, and ranked first in the game with high pressure pressing (366 times/game).

1. Real Madrid: 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 games, 4 wins and 1 draw in the Club World Cup, but the defense stability is insufficient (1.1 goals conceded per game). The 3-4-3 system created by Alonso has a counterattack efficiency of up to 38%, and Gonzalo Garcia (4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games) and Vinicius (4 outs per game) have become the core of the new attacks.

2. Real Madrid's tactical innovation: Alonso created a 3-4-3 system with "wing road overload + fast conversion" as the core: Road crush: Fran Garcia (18 sprints per game) and Arnold formed a "wreck-turned" wingback, using speed to suppress Paris' left-wing Mendes, and at the same time transporting shells for Vinicius and Gonzalo. Mbappe: After joining Real Madrid, he played against his old boss for the first time. He had 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games in the Club World Cup, and his substitute efficiency was amazing (scoring a 4-minute barb), and psychological factors may become a double-edged sword. Salou Garcia: The 21-year-old star has 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. The awareness of the point grabbing and the fulcrum are perfectly in line with Alonso's tactics. He has scored consecutively in the last 3 games to show his big heart.

Comprehensive event analysis:

Paris' opportunity: If you can create a mistake through high-pressure pressing within 30 minutes of the game, and use Dembele Kvaratschlia's wing linkage to tear the defense line, it may replicate a 2-0 victory against Bayern. Real Madrid's breakthrough point: Alonso may use the five-defender system, breaking through the gap behind Ashraf on the right through Valverde's full game coverage and Bellingham's accurate long pass. Combining tactical constraints, personnel status and climate factors, this game is likely to be in a stalemate. Paris's high-pressure pressing and wing impact pose a threat, but Real Madrid's rapid conversion and new star burst are more concealed. , Real Madrid's probability of winning slightly is slightly higher (the winning rate of regular time is 33.4%), but Paris' probability of advancing is 54% (overtime or penalty kick). This Club World Cup semi-final is not only a technical competition, but also the ultimate test of tactical concepts. If Paris can overcome the pain of reorganization of defense and play the wing blasting of Dembele and Donnarumma's goal line technology, it is expected to continue the dominance of the Champions League champion; Real Madrid will need to rely on Mbappe's superstar effect and Gonzalo's new star explosion to find space for counterattack under high pressure. In the end, physical fitness reserves, on-the-spot response and the performance of key players will determine the direction of this peak showdown

Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Madrid: Forecast: Win/Grade Score: 10 11 21 Goals: 2/3 Goals