European Youth Championship Czech U21 vs England U21 (June 13th 03:00) In-depth analysis

⚽ 1. Comparison of core strength

Dimensions

Czech U21

England U21

The whole team is worth

16.85 million euros (mainly the local league)

412 million euros (there are many new stars in the Premier League)

Recent status

2 draws and 3 losses in the last 5 friendly matches, 3 goals and conceded 10 goals

7 official matches, 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss

Historical confrontations

11 in the last 7 matches, 1 win, 1 draw and 5 losses, and all of them lost in the last 4 games

The last group stage won 2-0, psychologically crushing the lineup depth

17 people in the local league, core players were absent (Sadi Lake suspended + Vysinsky injured)

15 Premier League players, Elliott (42 million euros), Gordon and Archer led

2. Key points of tactical game

The defense and counter-difficulty of the Czech U21

Defensive loopholes: The main central defender Vysinsky was injured, and the substitute combination had weak air defense ability (scored by headers per last three games), and the mistake rate of shots against Norway in the backcourt in the warm-up match reached 15%.

Offensive dependence: Forward Sek (12 goals in 33 games) is the fulcrum, but the midfield creativity is insufficient; winger Sardlake's injury leads to a weaker counterattack width.

Strategy: intensive defense + set piece raid (refer to the 2023 winning German tactics).

England U21's field control advantage

Midfield dominance: Ramsey + Jones' dual-core drive, average ball control rate of 65%, Elliott dispatched to tear the defense line.

Offensive efficiency: Winter Gordon breaks through speed + center Archer (20 goals in the Championship) ends, but you need to be wary of the "bad" attribute (19 goals in 33 goals in the last 10 games against the weak team).

Hidden danger: Leading focus declined, with only 1 win in the last 5 away games, losing 3-5 to France in the warm-up match and exposed the loose defense.

3. Winning and losing hands and variables

England's winning signal:

① The initial organization rose to -0.75 to -1 goal, and the support strength was strengthened; ② Coach Casley won all three games against the Czech coach, and his tactical suppression was obvious; ③ The price difference was 24 times, and the Premier League's ability to lock in the victory.

Czech upset conditions:

① Copy the efficient set-piece against Germany in 2023 (Hlorek 14 goals and 6 assists in the penalty area); ② England's defense has conceded 8 goals in three games in the past, and its away focus is insufficient.

4. Data prediction and institutional viewpoint

Mainstream direction: England win away (sports lottery recommendation lose/left draw).

Score probability:

England's wins in a clean sheet: 0-2 (30%), 0-1 (25%);

Czech counterattack broke the deadlock: 1-2 (20%), and 1-1 cold draw (15%).

Goals: 2-3 goals (England's "Economic Win" mode, goals scored ≤2 in the last 4 European Youth Games).

Conclusion: England's small victory, the Czech Republic cannot stop the defending champion

victory: England wins (70% probability), handicap defense and draw (gap victory) (1 goal.

Key Tips: England is good at controlling the situation. If you don’t score in the first half, the substitute depth in the second half will end the suspense; the Czech Republic needs to rely on set pieces + Sek to fight the cold at a high point, but the defensive line is hard to go against the will of heaven and change fate.