8-20 Basel vs Copenhagen: First leg analysis of the Champions League playoffs

The background and importance of the event

This is a single-round winning and losing Champions League play-off. The winner will be qualified to enter the 2025-2026 Champions League main match, which means huge economic benefits and competitive honors. For Basel, this is their first time since the 2017-18 season that they are expected to return to the Champions League, while Copenhagen competed in the 2023-24 season. The Champions League playoffs have always been under great pressure, and both teams will do their best.

Comparison of team status and strength

Basel (FC Basel 1893)

Recent ups and downs: As the Swiss Premier League champion last season, Basel's performance in the new season was not stable. He scored 2 wins and 2 losses in 4 league games, scored 7 goals but also conceded 7 goals, and the problem was exposed on the defensive end. However, they showed strong offensive firepower by defeating Bill Bean 6-1 in the Swiss Cup.

The home advantage is obvious: Basel's home combat effectiveness has been significantly improved. All of the last 8 official home games have won, and the last 5 European games have also achieved an unbeaten record of 4 wins and 1 draw. This is their biggest source of confidence in this game.

Coach replacement impact: Former champion coach Fabio Celestini leaves office, and former Lausanne sports coach Ludovic Magnin takes over 15. He brings a more aggressive but also a higher risk to the play concept1.

Copenhagen (FC Copenhagen)

Stable and experienced: Copenhagen is a traditional Danish giant who regained the league championship last season. After the start of the new season, they won 4 of their five league games and remained unbeaten in four games in the Champions League qualifiers this season and did not lose a single goal, eliminating Derita from Kosovo (total score 3-0) and Malmö from Sweden (total score 5-0).

European experience: Copenhagen has participated in the Champions League more times in recent years. They are the only Danish team to qualify from the Champions League group stage (2010-11 and 2023-24 seasons). And they all successfully advanced in the last two Champions League playoffs.

Away performance: Although Copenhagen is in excellent overall shape, some away performances have fluctuated in recent days.

tactical style and key counterattacks

expected tactical style

Basel: It is expected to adopt a 4-2-3-1 formation. Under the guidance of Magnin, the team tends to play offensively, pursuing a rapid transition from defense to offense, trying to disrupt the opponent's defensive formation. This will make the game faster, but it may also cause the defense to be a short space for the opponent to take advantage of. Shaqiri's retracement organization, straight passes and set balls are the lifeline of the offense.

Copenhagen: Coach Jacob Neesttrup may arrange a 4-4-1-1 or 4-3-3 formation. The team is flexible in tactics, and can maintain a compact defensive formation (such as 4-4-2) when the ball is off, or perform high-level pressing. In the away game, they will likely defend against each other, using the dribbling and creativity of Mohamed Elyounoussi, as well as the impact of Andreas Cornelius or Youssoufa Moukoko to threaten Basel behind.

Key Player Showdown

Xavi Shaqiri (Basel) vs. Rodrigo Huescas (Copenhagen): Shaqiri is Basel's absolute core and number one scorer, and his experience and creativity are the key to breaking the deadlock. Possibly against him is Copenhagen's defensive midfielder Huescas, who is responsible for rhythm control and connection, and his defensive interception will be crucial to limiting Shaqiri.

Mohamed Iyunusi (Copenhagen) vs Basel Double Midfielder: Iyunusi is a key player in Copenhagen's qualifying match. He will be active in the front midfielder or wing, using his personal abilities to create opportunities for the forward. The double midfielder composed of Léo Leroy and Metinho of Basel must be tightly restricted and cannot give him too much space.

Albian Ayeti (Basel) vs. Pantlis Chazdiakos (Copenhagen): Basel striker Ayeti needs to fight for a shot in the middle. He will face tough defense from Copenhagen central defender Pantelis Chatzidiakos, whose air defense and frontal defense abilities are crucial to Copenhagen's zero conceded record.

Injury status and lineup prediction

Basell

Confirmed absence: defender Finn van Breemen (meniscus injury), Kevin Rüegg (ligament injury).

Estimated starter (4-2-3-1):

Hitz - Schmid, Vouilloz/Vujo, Adjetey, Tsunemoto - Leroy, Metinho - Otele, Shaqiri, Traoré - Ajeti

Copenhagen

Confirmed absence: Oliver Højer, Jonathan Moalem (both injured until the end of August); Elias Achouri, Thomas Delaney (no comeback schedule yet).

Estimated starter (4-4-1-1):

Kotarski - López, Chatzidiakos, Pereira, Huescas - Silva, Lerager, Mattsson, Larsson - Elyounoussi - Cornelius

Historical data and confrontation records

First official confrontation: This is the first time in history the two teams have met in a formal match. It only met in a friendly match in 2007, and the game was tied 3-3.

history against the two countries:

Basel has only achieved 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in the past 5 times against the Danish team.

Copenhagen has won 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Swiss teams in the past 6 times, with the upper hand (all opponents are Lugano).

Playoff history:

Basel: Experience in the past 4 Champions League playoffs, 2 wins and 2 losses. The most recent time was the 2015-16 season when he was eliminated by Tel Aviv Maccabi.

Copenhagen: All the last two Champions League playoffs have successfully advanced (including the elimination of Rakov in the 2023-24 season).

Potential results analysis

Slightly optimistic about Copenhagen's unbeaten (transferred 0.25): The institutional initial index affirmed Basel's home court advantage, but the support was limited. Copenhagen's defensive resilience, more complete European preparations (4 qualifying games have been played) and historic psychological advantages against the Swiss team give them the ability to take away an ideal result (a draw or a small victory) from the away game. This is the view of many professional analyses.

Goals prediction: 2/3 goals: Although Copenhagen has excellent defense, Basel has strong attack power at home and has loopholes in defense. Both sides have scored goals in all games this season. Both teams are more likely to score goals in this game. Basel's total goals have reached 3 goals or more in all competitions in the last 13 games.

Correct score guess: 1-1 (higher probability) or 2-1 (Basell narrowly wins). The draw is an acceptable suboptimal result for Copenhagen, while Basel strives to win at home and score more goals.

Key influencing factors

First goal: Who scores first will greatly affect the progress of the game. If Basel scores first, he can attack with the trend; if Copenhagen takes the lead, he is likely to firmly implement the defensive counterattack strategy.

Shaqiri's performance: As the most decisive player in Basel's team, his performance will directly determine the quality of the home team's offensive.

Physical fitness status: Copenhagen has played double games for a week in a row, and physical fitness may be a big test. Basel is waiting for work and may have the advantage in physical fitness.

Final prediction: Overall, this will be a very stalemate and evenly match. Copenhagen's defensive resilience and European experience may slightly restrain Basel's home momentum. Copenhagen is expected to remain unbeaten in the first round, with a predicted score of 1-1 or 1-2.