10.14 World European Qualifiers: Iceland faces France at the main station

1. Core information of the event

Game time: October 14, 2025 02:45

Nature of the event: 2026 World Cup European Qualifiers Group D No. 8 Round

Competition Venue: Reykjavik Ragnar Sol Stadium, Iceland

2. Qualifying Situation: A Destiny of Ice and Fire

France: Winning will lock in the qualifying advantage in advance

As the "only" strong team in Group D, France is currently far ahead with 12 points from 4 games and a goal difference of +10. It was 3-0 in the last round. After defeating Azerbaijan, it has established an absolute advantage. If they win this game away from home, they will lead with 15 points. The remaining opponents are limited (such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan), and they can lock the direct qualifying qualification for the first place in the group 2 rounds in advance, continuing the momentum of qualifying for four consecutive World Cups since 2014. The team has 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the past 10 games in all competitions. Its offensive and defensive efficiency ranks among the top three in Europe, and its willingness to score points is focused on "ending the game as soon as possible."

Iceland: Another home defeat means the team is basically out.

After Iceland suffered a 3-5 reversal at home against Ukraine on October 11, its qualifying situation took a turn for the worse. It currently falls to third place in the group with 2 wins, 2 losses and 6 points. It is only 1 point away from the second-placed Ukraine (7 points), but is 8 points behind on goal difference. For Iceland, this home match can be called a "cliff battle" - if they lose to France, even if they win, they will still have to rely on Ukraine to make consecutive mistakes to qualify for the play-offs; if they can draw or even win an upset, they can regain the initiative in the second place. However, the team has lost 2 and drawn 1 in the past 3 home games, and has a prominent problem of defensive collapse when facing strong teams (conceding 8 goals in the past 2 games).

3. Team status and lineup game

1. France: Mbappe leads the front line, Dembele's injury is a variable

Core advantages:

The front line is led by Real Madrid core Mbappe, who contributed 3 goals and 4 assists in the past 4 World Cup qualifying games, and completed "1 shot" against Azerbaijan in the last round. 1 pass", ranking first in the group in its success rate of breakthroughs with the ball (68%) and proportion of shots in the penalty area (52%). The midfielder is partnered by Joan Armene and Rabiot. The former averages 2.3 steals per game to build a defensive barrier. The latter has sent 2 assists in the past two games, and cooperates with Kevren Thuram's interspersed running to form an "offensive and defensive transition hub." The defense line includes the Bayern-Arsenal combination of Saliba and Upamecano. They have only conceded 1 goal in the past 4 World Cup qualifying games, with a clean sheet rate of 75%.

Potential shortcomings:

Dembele, the wing core, is absent from the current roster due to injury. Although Ekitic, who was recruited as a replacement, performed brilliantly when he was selected for the national team for the first time, he lacked actual training in competitions. In addition, the team occasionally relaxes when facing the "devil's home court" away from home. In 2024, the UEFA Nations League lost 1-2 to Austria in an away game. Iceland's artificial turf field may interfere with the technical flow of play.

2. Iceland: Standing still to fight the enemy, relying on the "Counterattack Trident"

Core advantages:

The home stadium Ragnar Sol Stadium can be called a "nightmare for strong teams". The artificial turf at an altitude of 100 meters + strong windy weather has caused the Netherlands and England to fail. The average attendance in the past 10 World Cup preliminaries has exceeded 18,000. The cheering momentum can increase the team's success rate in confrontations by 20%. Striker Gudmundsson is in hot form. He scored two goals against Ukraine in the last round. He has contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in the past 3 World Cup qualifying games. His long-range shot in the counterattack (38% hit rate) is the key to breaking the game. Goalkeeper Halldorsson is experienced, having saved Messi’s penalty kick in the 2018 World Cup, and has made eight saves in the past two games.

Fatal flaw:

The defense suffered a serious wave of injuries: main center back Ragnar Sigurdsson (knee injury) and right back Magnusson (hamstring strain) were absent. Substitute center back Johannesson lacked experience in the competition, resulting in an average of 7.2 breakthroughs per game in the past two games, and the turnover rate under high pressure was as high as 27%. The midfield lacks creativity, averaging only 3.1 key passes per game in the past 10 World Cup preliminaries. It is difficult to organize effective advancement in the face of France's high press. In the last round, Ukraine's ball possession rate was suppressed to 38%.

4. Tactical duel: pass control vs. shrinking counterattack

France: 4-3-3 ball control system, focusing on "combination between sides and center"

Coach Deschamps will continue the tactical framework used when winning the World Cup, with Joan Armene as the single midfielder to control the rhythm, and the ball possession rate target is more than 70%. The offensive end focuses on the left combination of "Mbappe's left breakthrough + Theo's assist" (accounting for 53% of the offense), and at the same time, Rabiot's header is used (two headers in the past two games) to attack the Icelandic defense. Set pieces will become an important weapon. Olise's free-kick cross success rate is 41%, and Saliba's aerial advantage (success rate 76%) can create a threat.

Iceland: 5-4-1 Intensive defense, hoping for a "lightning counterattack"

Coach Hallgrimsson was forced to adopt a five-back formation, with the double midfielders Gudmundsson and Bjarnason shrinking to protect the ribs, and the wing-backs retreated sharply to form an "iron barrel formation." The offensive end gave up possession of the ball (target ball possession rate 30%) and relied on the goalkeeper's long pass to find Gudmundsson in the frontcourt. He led the wingers Boisson and Sig Thorsson to form a counterattack trident. The counterattack speed could reach 32 kilometers per hour. The three goals against Ukraine in the last round all came from counterattacks.

5. Historical confrontations and data points

Past confrontation results: France has the advantage in the past 3 official encounters with 2 wins and 1 draw. In the first round in September 2025, France defeated Iceland 2-1 away from home and led 15-6 in the whole game. Mbappe contributed the winning goal.. But Iceland had drawn with France 1-1 in the 2016 European Cup and has experience dealing with strong teams.

Data trend: The Asian index rose from the initial handicap of 1.25 goals to 1.5 goals, reflecting the continued increase in market confidence in France. Combined with the characteristics of France averaging 2.8 goals per game in the past 4 World Cup qualifying games and Iceland conceding more than 2 goals in the past 3 home games, the game will most likely present a pattern of "France leading offense + Iceland sporadic counterattacks".

6. Score prediction and key highlights

Expert prediction direction

Winning or losing: France win/draw (France has a 68% chance of winning, Iceland has a 25% chance of a draw at home)

Score reference: 0-2, 1-3, 1-1 (probability of goals scored is 2-4 goals)