Thick eyebrows& Zion s past lessons! Best Rookie Preview: Flag leads the way, and many newcomers cannot be underestimated

Translator's note: The original text was published on ESPN, and the data in the text were as of the time of publication (local time on August 15), and the dates and times involved were all local time. The views in the article have nothing to do with the translator and the platform.

In terms of Cooper Flag's prospect of being elected Rookie of the Year, the NBA draft draw was perfect.

The Mavericks not only won the No. 1 pick - which means Flag joins a competitive team, and as a rookie he doesn't have to take big shots - but the other two high-ranking lottery draws have also gone to unexpected teams. In the Spurs, second-guess Dylan Harper ranked behind De Alon Fox, who had just renewed his contract early in the position of point guard, while Tanhua Show VJ Edgecom ended up with the 76ers, a team full of talented defenders and determined to compete for the championship.

Considering these factors, it is no surprise that Flag became the absolute favorite of the year (ESPNBET odds are -190). However, it is not a foregone conclusion that a highly anticipated rookie won the award in the rookie season. Two American rookies in the same data category as Flag—Zion Williamson, who was also Duke forward in 2019 and Anthony Davis in 2012—had not been able to do it: Williamson suffered an injury, while Davis lost directly to Damian Lillard, who is also a future All-Star.

With that in mind, let's look at who is likely to challenge Flag's Rookie of the Year by category. The three draft picks after Harper and Edgecombe went to rebuilding teams that often produced the best of the year. Since Ben Simmons won the 2017-18 season, only one winner (Scottie Barnes in the 2021-22 season) has a winning rate of more than 46%.

Bailey, Johnson and Knippel joined the three worst NBA teams last season and should get a lot of playing time right away. They are the other three rookies I predict that besides Flag, they can score in double digits per game.

Kon-Kniper

Kniper is Flag's teammate in Duke and he may have the most favorable environment to grow. The Hornets have excellent young players like LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, but they only played 74 games in total last season, and the team is in urgent need of Knippel's shooting ability. The Hornets may let new player Colin Sexton start in the backcourt with Ball, but Sexton seems to be more suitable for the substitute role. And Kniper is more efficient in Duke than other players in this group who have played in one year, which also explains why he ranks second in my data-based predictions.

Johnson is the third-place scorer in the summer league after Flag and Edgecombe (19.5 points per game), and he may immediately be the shooting guard at the Wizards, but it depends on how the Wizards decide how to use veterans CJ McCollum and Chris Middleton. McCollum and Middleton seem to be out of the Wizards’ long-term plan, and besides them, the team lacks players who can hold the ball to create offensive opportunities, which creates opportunities for Johnson – on ESPNBET, he is Flag’s biggest opponent. I am the least optimistic about Pele among the players in this group because the Jazz's offensive system may indulge his bad shooting habits. In the Salt Lake City Summer League, Pele played two games for the Jazz, shooting 37% from the field. Jazz coach Will Hardy will undoubtedly push Bailey to shoot more high-value threes, but the Jazz lost two best offensive creators, Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, and are counting on the recent rookies to replace them.

X factor

Dylan Harper, Spurs (+1000)

VJ Edgecomb, 76ers (+1200)

Their odds - third and fourth respectively - reflect more of the talent of these two players than their chances. Edgecomb's path will be clearer if the Sixers turn to retain their draft picks (the top four picks protected, otherwise sent to the Thunder) instead of trying to return to the playoffs.

VJ-Edgecom

Nevertheless, the 76ers' backcourt rotation was packed with other talented young players. Terrys Maxi is an All-Star, while Jared McCain was an early favorite in the opening rookie battle last season before he suffered a meniscus injury and was reimbursed for the season. The Sixers are likely to renew their contract with restricted free agent Quentin Grimes, who averaged 21.9 points per game in 28 games he played for Philadelphia after the trade deadline.

Just last season, we saw Reed Shepard, a player who became a favorite for the year based on data predictions (including mine) and his outstanding performance in the NBA Summer League - had difficulty getting playing time. For the second-tier show, there are fewer precedents like this. Marvin Bagley III is the only second-tier pick in the past decade to start less than half of the rookie season, but he can still average 25.3 minutes of playing time.

Dylan Harper

It is not clear where the Spurs can make these playing time for Harper. Getting him on the court with Fox can be challenging, as both lack the three-point threat when they are off the ball. And the Spurs' entire wing rotation lineup will return, including new Rookie of the Year Stephen Castle - another player with poor shooting from the outside.

However, if Fox or another Spurs defender is out for a long time, the chances of Harper's need to play the stats needed to compete for the rookie of the year will be greatly increased.

Walter Clayton Jr.

Walter Clayton Jr., Jazz (+3300)

Kank Clifford, Kings (+5000)

Yegor Jamin, Nets (+7500)

Jeremiah Fells, Pelicans (+5000)

Ryan Calkebrenner, Hornets (no odds)

Derek Quinn, Pelicans (+7500)

This group consists of some "playing NCAA and leaving" rookies with lower picks but opportunities to get playing time, as well as some seniors who may have more immediate combat effectiveness.

Ryan Kalkebrenner

No player over 20 years old has been elected Rookie of the Year since Malcolm Brogdon in 2016-17, but we have seen more experienced rookies approaching the award since. Just last season, 21-year-old Jaylen Wells finished third. In the 2019-20 season, Kendrick Nunn, who was promoted from the G League, ranked second only to Ja Morant.

Clayton and Clifford are two of the top three seniors selected after No. 11-plus rookie Sidrick Coward, but what I'm most interested in is second-round pick Carlke Brenner's rookie potential. After trading Mark Williams on draft night, the Hornets lacked a clear future candidate in the center position, and Calc Brenner may be the most likely starter of all the players selected outside the lottery zone. If he can get playing time, he should be able to play impressive offensive data.

Egor Jamin

Jamien will compete for the Nets' starting point guard position, and the team's original starter D'Angelo Russell has left the team in the offseason. The challenge is how he can play efficiently in the offensive system of the Nets, which has five first-round picks. I foresee that Fells and Quinn would have similar problems with the Pelicans.

Ultimately, Rookie of the Year will most likely be Flag's possession unless he messes up himself. We will wait and see if there will be another candidate who can stand out from the crowd and challenge the No. 1 pick.