The most troublesome problem of the Warriors during the offseason: Does Kuming stay or not? Analysis of the three possible paths

The Warriors' offseason is like a war without gunpowder. When Curry and Butler hold huge contracts, the cards in the management are becoming increasingly difficult to play - especially the renewal of the restricted free agent Kumingga has become the key pawn that will influence the team's direction in the next three years.

Salary cage: 170 million salary locks the operating space

Let's take a look at the Warriors' salary account book: the total amount of the guarantee contract next season is US$170 million, but it only covers 9 players. If you want to fill the 14-man lineup, the remaining 5 places can only be made up with basic salary and two-way contracts. What's even more terrible is that the luxury tax line is like the sword of Damocles hanging above his head: the first tyrant line is 195 million, and the second tyrant line is 207 million. If the Warriors choose to renew Kumingga, their salary may directly hit the second rich line. The tax paid at that time is higher than the player's salary, and the boss Lacob's wallet may be bleeding a lot.

But Kumingga cannot be let go easily. The 22-year-old man averaged 20.5 points per game in the second round of the playoffs, with a shooting percentage of over 50%. Even Cole admitted: "He is one of our most talented players." But the reality is cruel - the Warriors can only give him an annual salary of 25 million at most, otherwise the salary will break through the second rich line. If other teams throw out 30 million offers like the Nets, the Warriors will either grit their teeth to match (the price is an explosion in salary in the next two years), or watch him leave in other team jerseys.

Three paths: renewal, let go, sign first and then exchange, each with a fatal point

1. Forced renewal: If the time bomb of salary avalanche matches the quotes of other teams, the total salary will exceed 195 million next season, triggering a super luxury tax. By then, Curry, Butler and Green will have 85% of the team's salary, and even the basic salary will be carefully calculated. What's even more troublesome is that when Kuminga and Green were on the court at the same time, the Warriors had a net loss of 28.2 points per 100 rounds. Will the management dare to bet on this risk of chemical reaction?

2. Let go directly: The bamboo basket is in vain

If Kumingga is nakedly signed by the Nets or the Jazz, the Warriors will get nothing. Especially the Nets, who have a salary space of 50 million yuan, can completely use a 30 million contract to knock Kumingga unconscious. Don't forget that the Nets only won the 8th pick in the draft this year, and they are in urgent need of Kumingga's immediate combat power to rebuild.

3. Sign first and then exchange: The helpless choice that is locked by the terms

This is the most likely path for the Warriors, but the basic annual compensation clause is like a tight hoop - Kuming's first annual salary for the new contract can only be used to match the transaction. For example, if he signs 30 million, the Warriors can only exchange for 15 million assets. Want to get Wiggins? The Warriors have to make up their salary by taking the first round of picks. What’s even more embarrassing is that the chips that potential next players like Bulls and Wizards can provide are either premium contracts or lose their combat power, but are the Warriors really willing to exchange the future for the present?

Potential variables: Wiggins' return to the game with management

Recently, there is news that the Warriors want to use Kumingga to sign first and then exchange Wiggins, and then make a first-round pick. This seems to be a win-win: Wiggins is familiar with the Warriors system and can strengthen the front line; Kuminga goes to the Heat to gain more space. But the question is that Wiggins will earn 20.5 million next season, and the Warriors will have to match at least 15 million in salary, and can Kumingga's transaction value cover this gap? More importantly, is Wiggins' defense and three-point stability really more suitable for Curry and Butler than Curry?

General Manager Dunleavy's attitude is subtle: "We will try our best to talk to Kumingga, but this requires the common will of both parties." The subtext behind this is: Kumingga's contract renewal ultimately depends on the market quotation and his own choice. If he is determined to get the maximum salary, the Warriors can only be forced to start signing first and then exchange, even if the assets they exchanged are not ideal. The dilemma between the afterglow of the dynasty and the crossroads of the dawn of the rebuilding of the dawn is essentially a contradiction between the window of championship and the salary structure. Curry is 37 years old, butler is 35, and Green's condition is declining year by year. If Kumingga leaves the team, the Warriors will lose the last piece of young puzzle, and they can only use basic salary and veteran special cases to repair them in the next two years. But if he is forcibly kept, salary pressure may directly destroy the team's competitiveness.

Regardless of the final result, this offseason will be a turning point in the Warriors' history. Should I bet on Durant like in 2016, or should I endure the pain and rebuild it like in 2023? Every decision of management may affect the final glory of the Curry era. And Kumingga, the former "Golden State Future", is currently standing at the intersection between the afterglow of the dynasty and the dawn of reconstruction.