Offseason worry index: Where does Antetokounmpo go?

The NBA is often described as a "imitation league" - once a team's style of play works, other teams will rush to imitate. This idea also exists in the sports media circle. The Athletic NHL reporter Shayna Goldman recently launched the "Worry Index" for the NHL's boring offseason, and similar situations can also be applied to the NBA.

After Kevin Durant was traded to the Rockets, the offseason's popularity quickly cooled down. Although there were accidents such as Damian Lillard being slashed and extended payments and the Suns ended the Bradley Bill test early, there were not many big deals. Most teams are still exploring the operation of the second rich line era, with very little available salary space and limited high-quality free agents. Therefore, here we borrow the concept of "worry index" to evaluate the potential red signals that appear in the offseason:

Antetokounmpo's future with the Bucks

Worry index: 7/10

Compared with Durant, the most popular offseason is undoubtedly Giannis Antetokounmpo. The ruptured Achilles tendon in the first round of the playoffs allowed the outside world to see the dilemma of this Bucks lineup and also made people wonder whether Antetokounmpo would decide to leave Milwaukee.

The Bucks made an adventurous decision: take $22.5 million in dead wages each year on the books for the next five years, in exchange for salary space to introduce center Miles Turner to replace Brooke Lopez. This not only poaches people from the division opponents, but also theoretically improves the defensive diversity of the center position. Lopez's role in the Bucks is more stable, but Turner can bring more defensive changes.

Is this enough to satisfy Antetokounmpo? It's hard to say. However, Bucks general manager Jon Horst made big moves every time he faced rumors that Antetokounmpo might leave. In the 2020 offseason, when the outside world suspected that he would refuse to sign the maximum salary, the Bucks traded with Ju Holiday and won the championship in 2021. Later, Antetokounmpo emphasized that "a championship is not enough to satisfy himself", and they unexpectedly exchanged for Lillard - although they failed to successfully win the championship in the end, it did make people feel that the Bucks returned to the championship ranks at that time.

Now, Lillard's questions after his injury remain unresolved. However, the overall layout of the Eastern Conference gives the Bucks a chance to make a "Disney movie-like" counterattack: they make the game ugly around Giannis' defense and outside shooting, and then rely on "Antetokounmpo" to save the whole game. Just like the line in "Angels on the Stadium": "Everything is possible." But no one dares to guarantee it.

From a personal perspective (non-revelation), I think the biggest hope of keeping Antetokounmpo is - I don't completely believe that he will accept the PR impact caused by leaving the team. It's not just a matter of market, selling shoes or avoiding the burning of jerseys, but Giannis really enjoys being popular and truly loves Milwaukee. This kind of emotion is hard to give up on many levels. But if the Bucks can't take him further than the first round, his competitive desire may one day overshadow everything.

Jokic refused to renew early contract

Worry index: 3/10

The Nuggets' super core and world-renowned horse racing enthusiast Jokic did not seek an early contract renewal this offseason. Jokic currently has two years of guaranteed contract, with a total amount of US$114 million, plus player options for the 2027-28 season (US$62.8 million). He could have renewed his contract for about $200 million in advance for three years this summer, but this would have directly cancelled the player option. He is postponed to renew his contract next summer and he is eligible to sign a four-year contract of about $308 million, of which about $77 million in the last year.

From a personal interest perspective, this is reasonable and there is nothing to worry about. Although the Nuggets were in a sluggish state at the end of last season, with Jokic's super performance, they still entered the second round of the Western Conference. They traded Michael Porter Jr. to join the Nets in the first round, in exchange for Cameron Johnson, freeing up their salary space, thus introducing Valanciunas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown to strengthen their previously weak bench lineup.

Denver has changed from a team that is "who is entirely supported by Jokic" to a top contender in the Western Conference who is tied for the defending champion Thunder. The only reason why this index is not 1 but 3 is that Jokic's love for horse racing far exceeds his enthusiasm for basketball. It would not be surprising if he suddenly retired at the age of 32 or 33 to develop.

76ers

Worry Index: 8/10

Last summer, when Paul George joined the 76ers, although the team's core teams were Joel Embiid, George and Teresa Maxi, I still did not immediately include them in the championship zone. The reason is simple: The team's health and attendance issues in the playoffs were too big, and George's playoff performance was not stable during the Thunder and Clippers.

The result was worse than I expected. Embiid, George and Maxie played only 112 games last season, with only 15 games in the same game for the three. The team chose to play a strategic role, rested the injured, saved the first round pick (as long as the pick is in the top six, it will not be sent to the Thunder), and drew the Tanhua position in the lottery, selecting talented rookie defender VJ Edgecom. In addition, they welcomed last season's best rookie Jared McCain, but he was reimbursed for a knee injury season in December last year.

Although on paper, if healthy, the Sixers still seem to have reason to be optimistic, the reality is that they may face injuries before training camp or even preseason starts. George underwent left knee surgery last month and will undergo a reexamination before training camp. This does not mean that he will definitely return, but the team will update his situation on Media Day. George has played only about 50 games per year in the past six seasons (a total of 304 games), and this injury history is uneasy. For the 76ers, the safest attitude is: assume the worst case, and then pray for good news..

Celtics and Eastern

Worry Index: 6/10

I am not ready to sentence the Celtics to death. Don't get me wrong: I don't think they are a championship team, nor do I believe they can win the Eastern Conference. But I still hope that they can make it to the top six in the Eastern Conference and avoid playing games.

Jason Tatum, Ju Holiday and Christaps Porzingis have all left the team. Luke Cornett is also out of the free market, while Al Horford is expected to sign other teams. The rotation team suffered heavy losses last season, and the health of Derek White and Jaylen Brown is crucial. Still, I think people underestimate the difficulty of this Celtic style of play. They did not lose a lot of outside projections—that is the core of their offensive system. In the three seasons coached by Joe Mazura, the Celtics accounted for 47.9%, 47.0% and 53.5% of the three-point shooting respectively. Their three-point shooting numbers in the past two seasons are the first in the league, and Mazura's debut season is second only to the Mavericks. The coach has always insisted on long-range firepower coverage.

Although the above players were lost, they successfully introduced Anthony Simmons and Chris Boucher. Simmons' career three-point shooting percentage was 38.1%, and his three-point shooting percentage reached 41.3%. It perfectly adapts to the system, and it is not surprising that even the Celtics use 60% of the outside line to make up for the loss of personnel.

Boucher is not a stable shooter, but has two of the past five seasons with three-pointers above the league average. In the 2020-21 season, his three-point shooting percentage reached 38.3%, and his catch and shoot 37.8%. The following three seasons felt cold, but the space attributes were reproduced last season - the three-point shooting percentage was 36.5%, and the receiving and shooting 37.9%. Two years ago, his three-pointers came from the top arc or right wing (Words Dessert Point), and last season it appeared more in the bottom corner (39% hit rate).

Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser are still in rotation, and their shooting ability is unquestionable. Tatum stepped back from injury, and the playoffs have shown fine-tuning style. Although the sample size is small, the team has reduced the singles of the star and relied more on team offense, which is the root cause of their headaches for opponents. Encountering this system in the regular season will give any team a headache.

The inside rotation still needs to be run-in, and the combination of Boucher, Xavier Tilman, Nemias Quita and Luca Garza may not be beautiful enough. But it's too early to kick them out of the top six.

The Clippers are seriously aging

Worry Index: 5/10

This Clippers are too old. They are so old that many people are worried that they can't bear the consumption of 82 regular season and playoffs, let alone the championship. This is not a joke but a realistic portrayal of the lineup age: similar discussions have been heard since 40-year-old Chris Paul and 37-year-old Brooke Lopez (even Bradley Bill, 32-year-old) joined this summer.

8 players in the Clippers were born before 1995. The average age of the core 11 players is 33 years old. According to statistics from Tom Haberstro and Dan Devin, this set the oldest lineup record in the league, surpassing the Jazz who was 32 years old in the 2001-02 season.

Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Cameron Christie and rookie Yanick Conan Needhausera have lowered their average age, but these players are expected to have difficulty playing time - perhaps because there are too many veterans to use them more?

My concerns stem more from injury history (so the index rose to 5). Kawhi Leonard, Paul, Bill and others have a history of serious injuries, but the depth of the Clippers is enough to manage the load. They have an amazing lineup thickness to deal with the long season.

The demise of the free market

Worry index: 10/10

Although it is cliché, the passion of the free market in the second rich era may really disappear. Perhaps this is an overreaction to the deserted summer window of 2025, but the trend is no longer reversible. Whether an agent can turn the world around is another matter.

Originally 2026 was regarded as a big year for the free market, and many teams maintained salary flexibility in order to next summer window. It depends on whether Trae Young, Zach Lavender and even Draymond Green jumped out of the player option, but the potential free agent depth is far beyond this summer.

If Kevin Durant does not renew his contract with the Rockets (although an agreement is expected), he will enter the market. LeBron James will be a free agent, and the Lakers no longer seem to be the end of his career (more on the follow-up). Austin Reeves could be one of the top-paying contenders. Payroll space is more likely to be used in the trading market, or to eat into contracts with draft picks to avoid luxury taxes.

Trading deadline may have become a neo-free market, or do we just realize that this has long been the norm?

LeBron James' future

Worry index: 3/10

After James executed the $52.6 million player option, Klutch Sports CEO Ricky Paul's statement undoubtedly made the outside world feel that his relationship with the Lakers is delicate. I don't think both sides are in a bad mood, but obviously the Luka Doncic's deal has changed the current and future of the team. What does this mean for LeBron?

His recent meeting with Jokic's agent has triggered the speculation that he "joined the Nuggets to live a lifetime", but in fact it may just be discussing overseas league events. The key is that although James is not his peak (and was selected for the second team at the age of 40 last season), he is still a legend that coexists with commercial value and stadium contribution.

After becoming a free agent next summer, multiple teams will rush to pay for the end of their careers. The question is whether it is worth signing a veteran of 40 with one-third of the salary space? Will James make these questions seem redundant? Return to Cleveland? Join forces with Curry? Is it necessary to cut salary to chase the fifth championship? The February trading of Luca has complicated the situation, but with LeBron's wisdom, there is no need to worry too much.

Pelicans

Worry Index: 9/10

When will the Pelicans' Worry Index be lower than 9/10? People are keeping a close eye on this node on July 15 (the deadline for Zion Williamson's contract to be fully guaranteed), reflecting the uncertainty of the entire team.. On draft night, they sent CJ McCollum (reasonable) for Jordan Poole (puzzling), and got Derek Quinn (has undergone wrist surgery) with the 2026 unprotected first-round pick-up transaction.

Except for Zion, Dezhangtai Murray had a laceration of Achilles tendon in January, and Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones played in total only 73 games last season. The lineup puzzle seems beautiful but it is difficult to form a system. Although Willie Green is a potential young coach, the support of the new management (Joe Dumas and Troy Weaver) is questionable.

When Tsai En is healthy, he is a historical existence. If he is absent again, what is left of this team?