ESPN explains the Rockets offseason in detail: Three major advantages can catch up with super giants. Ethan Xiaojia is qualified to renew his contract

On May 5, the Rockets lost to the Warriors in a tiebreak and were eliminated. ESPN salary expert Marks then explained the Rockets' offseason in detail and pointed out that if the Rockets want to pursue superstars like Durant or Antetokounmpo, they have three key advantages. In addition, the Rockets also need to consider renewing the contract with young people on the team. This offseason, Ethan and Jabbarry Smith Jr. will be eligible for renewal.

2024-2025 season record: 52 wins and 30 losses, lost 3-4 to the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs

June draft pick: first round pick from the Suns (3.8% No. 1 pick probability), 59th pick (from the Thunder)

Free agents: Van Vleet (team option), Adams, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday (team option), Tate, McVeigh (restricted free agent), Dante (restricted free agent)

Lineup status:

As the second seed in the Western Conference, it was eliminated in the first round, which is undoubtedly a failure. But from a macro perspective - considering the team's situation after trading Harden in 2021 - we can understand that the Rockets' performance this season is far beyond expectations. Since Harden left, the team has experienced a difficult season of 17 wins, 20 wins and 22 wins, while the team won 41 games last year and 52 games this year.

Nowadays, the real test lies in how the Rockets management and coaching staff evaluate the existing roster and solve the shortcomings exposed by the team in the playoffs. This evaluation idea should be very different from the regular season, after all, during the regular season, Houston reasonably adopted a conservative strategy to adjust the lineup.

"We certainly hope that this team will perform at its best this year and then evaluate it after the season is over," General Manager Stone said in December. "But we really hope that this core lineup will lead us to our goals... From a trading perspective, our main work has basically been completed."

Under coach Uduka, the Rockets have formed a defensive system (fifth in the league's defensive efficiency this season) and have good conditions for success at least in the next few seasons. The team will welcome a top 10 pick from the Suns based on the existing lineup. Players expected to return next season include Shin Kyung, Jabbarry Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Ethan, Jaylen Green, Dillon, Van Vleet, and Reed Shepard, last year's lottery pick. However, center Adams may enter the free agent market and leave the team.

The question now is, is the continuity of the lineup alone enough to support the team in the championship?

Offseason Financial Status:

VanVleet's $44.9 million team option will affect the Rockets' operational flexibility this offseason. The team needs to decide whether to execute the option within five days of the final game of the playoffs. If the Suns' first-round draft pick is included and the VanVleet option is executed, Houston will exceed the luxury tax line of $7.5 million, just reaching the first tycoon line. The Rockets could also refuse to execute the option and then sign a long-term contract with VanVleet at a lower salary.

If VanVleet's option is implemented, the Rockets still have some financial room, because the team still has $12 million in non-guaranteed contracts (Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale). The Rockets need to decide by June 30 whether to guarantee the $8 million contract in Langdale and execute Holiday's $4.9 million team option.

Management top priority: The Rockets lost to the Golden State Warriors in the first round, which should allow the team to think deeply about two issues.

First, are you confident that you can add a top 10 pick to develop into a team that not only performs well in the regular season? Their regular season scoring champion Jaylen Green, averaged 6 points less in the first round than the regular season, shot only 37.2% from the field and 31.2% from three-pointers (in the fourth game he lost, he scored only 8 points and made five turnovers).

In the first three games of losing, the Rockets fell behind their opponents 10-22 at the critical moment. In the regular season, the Rockets had a record of 26 wins and 18 losses at critical moments, tied with the Cavaliers for the most wins at critical moments.

This brings up the second question: Does the Rockets need a star who has been selected for the best team, such as Durant of the Suns, or even Antetokounmpo of the Bucks, to achieve the team's breakthrough? If they decide to chase the stars, the Rockets have three key advantages—the

draft assets: Over the next seven years, they have five tradable first-round picks, including this year's Suns first-round picks, and unprotected first-round picks in 2027 (from the Suns) and 2029 (from the Suns or the Dallas Mavericks). In addition, the Rockets can also trade first-round picks in 2028, 2030 and 2032.

Controllable contract: The Rockets have five players (Jabbarry Smith Jr., Ethan, Shepard, Whitmore and Amen Thompson) in their first-round rookie contract.

Large contract: Shin Kyung and Green completed a rookie renewal in October last year. The “poison clause” restrictions in their contract will be lifted on July 2, when the two are eligible for transactions. Both players will earn $33 million next season. Dillon has two years left in his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million respectively).

In addition, retaining Adams should be a priority for the team. The Rockets performed the best when Adams and Shin Kyung were partnering with each other in the series with the Warriors. In the playoffs, when the two were on the court at the same time, the team netted 30.7 points per 100 rounds; during the regular season, this data also reached a net 30 points..

Persons worth paying attention to:

For the second consecutive offseason, two players of the Rockets are eligible for rookie renewal before October 22. (Last year it was Shin Kyung and Green, and this year it was Smith and Ethan).

Smith Jr. started 194 games in the first three seasons of his career, but was replaced by Amen Thompson later in the season. In 19 substitute games, according to statistics, Smith Jr. shot 49.2% from the field and 37.2% from three-pointers. When he was on the court, the Rockets netted 7.9 points per 100 games.

Ethan averaged career highs this season with scores (12.0 points), assists (1.5), steals (1.7), blocks (0.9) and shooting percentage (49%). Since the Rockets' total salary next season is nearly $80 million lower than the luxury tax line, they can discuss contract renewals with the two players more actively.

Team requirements:

If Adams leaves the team in free agency, the Rockets need to introduce a center. In addition, it is also an urgent task to make Shepard grow into a regular rotation player. Shepard averaged 12.6 minutes per game this season, and his performance from the outside was not stable enough. Shepard averaged 30.7 points and 8.3 assists per game in three games with the G League Vipers.

Draft Assets:

Houston Rockets have eight future first-round picks, five of which can be traded over the next seven years. The Rockets need to send the Thunder a first-round pick protected by the top four picks in 2026, but retain their own first-round picks in 2027 (and have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets that year). The Suns will give the Rockets the 2027 unprotected first-round pick. In 2029, the Rockets held two of the more favorable picks in the first round of the Rockets, Mavericks and Suns, and the team also had seven second-round picks available.