The war rekinds! Predict the results of the focus battle tonight

### **The key duel in the Emperor's Cup*

The following events are all J1 teams playing against low-level teams at home, and the home team generally has the advantage:

|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | **2-1** |

| Kobe Victory vs Kofu Fenglin | Kobe won 5 consecutive home games + 3 clean sheets, Kobe was mediocre away and lost all historical confrontations. | **2-0** |

| Kashima Antlers vs Nagasaki Nagasaki Nagas | Kashima has won all the historical clashes, but has lost three consecutive times in recent years; Nagasaki is resilient away (unbeaten in 3 games). | **3-1** |

| Xiangnan Ocean vs. Qingshui encouragement | Xiangnan's home win rate is 60%, Qingshui lost 4 away games and had a big defensive loophole. | **2-1** |

| Kyoto vs Yokohama FC | Kyoto won four consecutive home games, Yokohama lost three consecutive away games and suffered five consecutive kills in history. | **3-1** |

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### ** Quick review of the match between Nordic Super League and American Professionals**

1. ** Fredericksta vs Bode Shining (Nordic Super League, 22:00)**

- Bode Shining has balanced offense and defense (second most goals and conceded the least), but the core of the midfield Borg is absent; Frederick has recently recovered but has a disadvantage in his historical confrontation (1 draw and 3 losses in the last 4 games).

- **Predict**: Bord Shine away wins 2-1**.

2. **American League (7 games in total)**

Due to limited intelligence, it is based on the standings and recent performance brief analysis:

- **Focus game**: Cincinnati (1st in the East) vs. Miami International (led by Messi), the home team has a stable defense, Miami is weak away, and tends to be unbeaten by the home team.

- **Other games**: New York Red Bull (strong at home) vs New England Revolution (latest away), expected to win **; Los Angeles FC (2nd in the West) away game against Minnesota United, with strength suppression may lead to a away victory*

Decisive background: Champion belongs to historical demons

- **Points situation**: This East Asian Cup ushered in the final decisive battle, and the Chinese and Japanese women's football teams achieved 1 win and 1 draw in the first two rounds, with 4 points in the same period. However, the Japanese women's football team has a goal difference advantage (scoring 5 goals and conceding 1 goal) and the Chinese women's football team has scored 6 goals and conceding 4 goals closely behind. This means that **Chinese team must win to win the championship**. If they draw, they may watch Japan reach the top due to a goal difference disadvantage.

- **Shadow of Historical Confrontation**: The Chinese women's football team has not defeated Japan for six consecutive years. Japan has won 5 wins and 2 draws in the last 7 main matches and remained unbeaten, with 4 of them being cleaned up in the Chinese team. The most recent match was the 2023 Asian Games, with the Chinese team losing 3-4. On the psychological level, Japan has an absolute upper hand.

### ⚽ 2. Tactical game: Passing and controlling Iron Wall VS Counterattack Blade

#### **Japanese Women's Football Team: Precision pass control, wing penetration**

- ** System core**: Adhere to the 4-3-3 formation**, the midfield is controlled by **Sakano Saoyin (average 85 passes + 90% success rate)**, and paired with Hasegawa Wei (a success rate of 95%) to form a scheduling dual core. The offensive end emphasizes the infiltration of the ribs and the cooperation between small ranges, and 60% of the goals are derived from this tactic.

- **Facing weapon**: **Hina Miyazawa (3 goals this year)** and **Juno Endo (create 5 excellent opportunities)** Make a double arrow, supplemented by the impact of winger Yuzuki Yamamoto, forming a three-dimensional attack. However, Ueno's true departure weakens the role of the frontcourt fulcrum. The success rate of substitute Haeyu Yagawa's back-to-back receiving is only 65%, which may affect the stability of the ball.

- **Defensive risks**: Captain central defender **Saki Kumatani is absent due to injury**, and the substituted Risa Kimizu is not tall enough, and the defensive error rate of high-altitude balls is 33%. Conceded 8 goals in the last 6 games and only 1 game to close, the stability of the defense line has declined.

#### **Chinese women's football team: efficiently prevent and reverse, raise high and play **

- **Tactical life goal**: Use **4-2-3-1 or 5-4-1 shrinking formation**, with a per-game ball possession rate of only 42%**, and strategically give up the ball rights and focus on counterattack. The double midfielder (Yao Wei + Zhang Rui) protects the penalty area, and the counterattack averages 7.1 seconds to complete the goal**, relying on the wing fast horse to assault + 45-degree cross.

- **Key Weapons**: **High center forward Shao Ziqin (all three goals in this year are headers)** is the core of tactical skills, with a 68% success rate in headers. But the problem of insufficient support is prominent - she has limited chances of touching the ball against Taipei, China, and coach Milicic has asked to reflect on "why there are too few passes."

- **Overseas Engine**: **The double-middle combination of Wang Yanwen and Shen Mengyu** showed value in the last round, with the former breaking the deadlock with a long shot, while the latter has a steady offense and defense scheduling. Wang Shuang (knee injury) may appear as a substitute, and his key pass (3.2 per game) is still the backhand ace.

- **Defensive Alert**: Conceded 9 goals in the last 5 games, with only 1 game of zero. Fullback **Li Mengwen's return to defense speed is 1.2 seconds slower than her opponent, and she is easily attacked by the Japanese winger in the opposite direction. In the last round, he was even chased by Taipei, China for two consecutive goals, and his concentration and physical fitness were allocated as hidden dangers..

### 3. The key to victory or defeat: Who can hold the opponent's throat?

- **Japan Breakthrough Point**: Can you break through the 30-meter area of the Chinese team to intensive defense**? It is necessary to maintain a pass success rate of more than 85%, and use the weakness of Chinese fullbacks' slow return to defense to combine side and middle.

- **China's winning strategy****The counterattack was a situation of 3 or more **, and Zhang Linyan (speed 33km/h) attacked behind the Japanese full-back. **Setting ball** is another lifeline - Shao Ziqin's high point advantage against Japan's dwarf defense may create murderous intent.

- **X factor**: Japan has locked in the championship ahead of schedule (the points rule is dominant), and it may rotate main players such as Kitamura Miha; the Chinese women's football team needs to strive for victory and have a stronger fighting spirit.

### 4. Results prediction: The cruel balance revealed by data

- **Probability distribution**: Comprehensive strength and style restraint, **Japan's winning rate is 60%**, draw 30%, and China's upset winning rate is only 10%.

- **Score tendency**:

→ **Japan 1-0 China** (control the field and suppress, break the secret defense in the second half)

→ **Japan 2-1 China** (leading and counterattacking and winning a goal)

→ **0-0 draw** (All Chinese players defended their way + Japan missed the correct goal)