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September 9: Today s event analysis and prediction, selected 4 game predictions are welcome to refer to.

1:51pm, 9 September 2025【Football】

Serbian event analysis: The offensive and defensive balance of the three central defenders system: Serbia adopts a 3-4-2-1 formation, and the average height of the central defenders Mirenkovic (Nottingham Forest) and Pavlovic (AC Milan) is as high as 192cm, forming an air barrier. The wingbacks Kostic (Juventus) and Ilic (Turin) averaged 7.2 passes per game, focusing on the air defense weaknesses of the English full-back.

Midfield strangling and counterattack efficiency: The double midfielder Lukic (Fulham) and Goodley (Sevilla) averaged 5.8 steals per game, which can effectively cut off the English midfield pass route. In the counterattack, Vlahovic (Juventus)'s fulcrum role (period 2.1 successful top-up per game) formed a fatal combination with Mitrovic (Riyadh Crescent)'s olfactory sense of goal (32 goals in 38 games). Settings Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Serbia's set-piece score rate reaches 31% (fourth in Europe). Kostic's precise cross and Mitrovic's header success rate (78%) constitutes a "air corridor". The average height of England's defense line is 184cm difficult to compete with. Home Devil's Atmosphere: Belgrade's Raiko Mitic Stadium has won 80% in its last five home games, and fans cheered to increase the opponent's pass error rate by 17%. Core player status: Vlahovic has contributed 12 goals and 4 assists in the club competition this season, while Mitrovic has transferred to the Qatar League, but the national team is still in a stable state (4 goals in the last 5 games). Injury risks: Milinkovic (Saudi League)'s absence has led to a decline in offensive tandem ability, and young midfielder Gruichi needs to undertake more organizational tasks.

England event analysis:

4-3-3 ball control and oppression: The midfield dual-core composed of Bellingham (Real Madrid) and Rice (Arsenal) averages 90% pass success rate, breaking intensive defense through short pass penetration. Saka (Arsenal) and Foden (Manchester City) accounted for 42% of the inward shots on the wing, but the two were missing due to injuries that could weaken the offensive diversity. Double-edged sword for offense and defense in set pieces: England's set pieces defense success rate is only 68% (fifth from the bottom in Europe), but Maguire (Manchester United)'s header success rate on the offensive end is 75% and Kane (Bayern)'s ability to grab points (3 goals in the last 3 set pieces) can form an effective breakthrough. Fullbacks intercepted assists: Trippier (Newcastle) and Reese James (Chelsea) averaged 4.5 key passes per game, and his side crosses and midfielder were inserted to form a three-dimensional offensive network.

Injury impact: Bellingham (dislocated left shoulder), Saka (sprayed ankle), Foden (strained calf) and other core players are absent, resulting in a 30% reduction in midfield creativity, but the forward combination of Kane and Rashford (Manchester United) is still threatening. Stabilization of away games: England's winning rate in the last five away games is 50%, but the ball possession rate dropped to 52% in the face of high-intensity pressure. We need to be wary of Serbia's three tricks on the opening game. Tactical adjustment space: Tuchel may use Chik (Milan) to replace Bellingham, whose 65% confrontation success rate can enhance midfield hardness, but the pass accuracy (81%) is lower than Bellingham's 88%.

Comprehensive match analysis and prediction:

Midfielder control battle: England Rice's interception ability (3.1 steals per game) and Serbian Lukic's intensity of confrontation (2.8 interceptions per game) will determine the rhythm of the game. If the England midfielder can maintain the ball, the Serbian defense may have a physical gap in 60 minutes.

Wide offensive and defensive game: Serbia's left-handed Kostic (per-time 2.3 successful passes) against England's right-back Trippier (41% defensive success rate) is the main breakthrough. Kostic has made 6 assists through crosses from the wing this season, and Trippier's turn speed (1.8 seconds) is difficult to catch up.

institutions generally set up a water set with England's 0.5 goals. Combined with the historical data of 50% away win rate and 80% home win rate, the probability of a draw exceeds 45%. Judging from the expected goal value (xG), Serbia's home game xG reached 1.7, while England's away game xG was 1.5, and the offensive efficiency gap was weak. This game is not only a competition for points, but also a collision between two football philosophy. Serbia's high-altitude bombing and home toughness may offset England's pass control advantage, and if England can take the lead in set piece offense and defense, there is still a chance to escape unscathed. The charm of football lies in uncertainty, but data and tactical analysis point to a clear conclusion: Serbia's unbeaten home game is more likely to become a reality.

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