8-17 Eredivisie Round 2 Breda vs Fortuna Sitade

⚠️ Core Intelligence Express

Injury List

Breda: Forward Blame (hand injury), midfielder Jensen (toe injury), and defender Grame (shoulder injury) are absent, affecting the depth of rotation between the midfield and the frontcourt.

Fortuna Sitade: Only defender Sinke Graffin (knee injury) is absent for a long time, and the lineup is intact.

Historical confrontations

Futuna has 4 wins and 2 losses in the last 6 matches, but Breda has resilience at home - the last home game (September 2024) won 28 1-0. At the end of last season, Fortuna won 1-0 at home, with a possession rate of 61%, but only 4 shots on the right side, reflecting the stalemate of the confrontation.

⚽ Tactics and status analysis

Comparative dimension

Breda

FutunaSitade

Recent performance

Defeated 0-2 away from Feyenoord in the first round, with 0 shots in the whole game; 17 consecutive games of the official matches across the season (0 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses)

The Eagles with 2-2 draws in the first round, with a ball possession rate of 68% + 7 shots positive, with outstanding resilience

Tactical system

4-3-3Defense and counter-attacks, relying on the wing propulsion, but the interception in the midfield is weak &The new forwards are not integrated well

4-2-3-1 formation, with high efficiency in the side and middle, new midfielder Tong Ichi scored in his first game, and his first shot rate was only 12%, with offensive efficiency at the bottom of the Eredivisie; the main goalkeeper Cotesmit was injured, and the two goalkeeper Bilica was not experienced in the defense line at a high altitude top (the success rate of the first round was 48%), and he was easily crossed and deduced by data and model. Goal distribution: The total goals in the last 5 matches were ≤3 goals, of which 4 of them did not exceed the 2.5 goal line. Fortuna's last 10 away games have total goals

Winning probability:

Breda win rate: Institutions lose 2.32 at the initial loss (implicity probability 43%)

draw probability: 3.49 odds (28.7%)

Fortuna win rate: 3.09 odds (32.3%)

Asia Index: Mainstream institutions draw Breda handicaps (visiting team +0.25), matched with Fortuna's low water of 1.83, tend to be unbeaten by the away team.

Key Points of Winning and Losing

Breda's ability to break the game: If it cannot improve the efficiency of 0 shots in the first round, it is difficult to break the midfield strangle (Harovic's first round pass success rate is 89%).

Fortuna counterattack threat: high center forward Graton (1 goal in the first round) is targeting the home team's two goals + high-altitude weakness, and the set ball may become a breakthrough.

Psychological Game: Breda's 17-game defeat at home may be transformed into a leading position by Fortuna using its counterattack efficiency.

Score prediction

Asian gameplay: Fortuna +0.25 (odds 1.83), covering the away win/draw dual options.

score reference: 0-1 (Futuna's small victory) or 1-1 (Breda scored in the end under high pressure).

High value supplement: Total goals ≤3, based on the history of the confrontation + the offensive efficiency of both sides in the first round.