200 million pounds to reorganize the front line. Manchester United, who has no money, will be able to solve the problem of difficulty in scoring goals in three seasons?

When discussing Manchester United's summer signing plan, the DO master once mentioned a problem: Amorin believes that the problem of Manchester United's difficulty in scoring goals is the first step. Manchester United is not not creating offensive opportunities, but Manchester United's ability to seize opportunities is too poor. Manchester United's offensive problems are historical issues, but they are focused on the outbreak this season.

If you are asked to choose the few issues that Manchester United needs to solve most, I believe that the goal issue will also enter the top three. Now, Manchester United's transfer rumors in the summer window are basically concentrated on offensive players. They have won Cunha for £62.5 million and are negotiating to fight for Mbeumo for about 50 million to 60 million. There should be signings from the center next. Overall, the investment in the front line in the summer window should be 200 million pounds. This is when they are very poor, they have to spend 200 million pounds to reorganize the main front line.

The problem of difficulty in scoring: 60 goals is a huge threshold

DO master said that the problem of Manchester United's rare goals is a historical legacy, and this is verified by data. Manchester United has experienced a total of 12 seasons in the post-Ferguson era, including 5 seasons in Premier League goals and 70 goals in 11 seasons.

So, what kind of threshold is it to score 60 or 70 goals in the Premier League in a single season? The 38 rounds of the Premier League are equivalent to the probability of averaging 1.84 goals per game, or even less than 2 goals per game. This season, only 2 teams in the Premier League scored more than 70 goals (Manchester City, Liverpool) and 8 teams scored 60 goals (about 1.57 per game).

I looked at the league goal data in the past 10 years of Premier League. There are few goals this season. Last season, 8 teams scored 70 goals and above. The league relies on offense and cup defense. If you want to get a good ranking in the league, it is basically a threshold to score 60 goals in a single season. In some seasons, it is even required to score more than 70 goals. If you can't get these goals, don't talk about competing for the Champions League qualification.

Or express it this way. The Premier League scored 60 goals in 38 rounds, which is enough to compete for the UEFA Cup qualification. Scoring 70 goals in a single season can compete for the UEFA Champions League qualification. This is the threshold for the Premier League. Manchester United missed the Champions League in half of the seasons in the post-Ferguson era because the number of goals scored in at least 5 seasons is less than 60 goals.

To score a goal, you must have a chance to shoot: 13 shots per game

If you want to score more than 60 goals in a single season, how many chances do you need to shoot? First, the data is mentioned. Arsenal and other teams with the highest shooting conversion rate in the Premier League have a 12% shooting conversion rate. They scored 12 goals in 100 shots and scored 60 goals in 500 shots, and only 13 shots per game. The team with the worst shooting conversion in the Premier League is 7% of Manchester United, and even Manchester United's shooting conversion in many consecutive seasons is the bottom.

Assuming that Manchester United's shooting efficiency remains unchanged, how many shots does Manchester United need to unlock the season's 60 goals score? 7 goals can be scored in 100 shots, 700 shots can be achieved in the Champions League standard, and about 600 shots can be achieved in the UEFA Cup standards. Only Manchester City and Liverpool can score 600 shots in a single season.

Therefore, Manchester United has to solve the problem of rare goals, and there are only two dimensions to solve it. First, you need to improve the conversion rate of the shots; second, you need to solve the problem of the number of shots. Only by improving both dimensions at the same time can you solve the problem of rare goals.

Manchester United's shooting conversion rate: It is directly related to the shooting distance

What is the size of the Premier League's large penalty area? Please refer to the figure below. We need to understand first: the closer we are to the goal, the higher the probability of shooting? This has been verified by a lot of data: scoring a goal facing the goal is easier than scoring a goal against the side, and the closer you are to the goal, the easier it is to score a goal.

So the question is, what is the average shooting distance for Manchester United? Since Ibrahimovic left Manchester United, Manchester United's shooting distance has been more than 17 meters, and most of the time it has been stable at around 17.4 to 17.8 meters (the color area is marked in the picture below, which is the shooting distance this season). You can use this distance to compare the size of the large restricted area?

Most of Manchester United's shots come from the left winger's inward cut-in shot (shot to the side) and B Fei's long shot from outside the penalty area (shot to the goal). The shooting data of B Fe + Garnacho is equal to half of Manchester United's team's shooting in the Premier League. Therefore, the problem that determines the lower limit of Manchester United's goal this season is: B Fe + Garnacho's shooting conversion rate; the upper limit of Manchester United's goal is center Hoylen's grabbing point at the close point.

When your upper limit and lower limit are not high, you naturally have very few goals, because your shots are not very good shooting opportunities. Arsenal's shooting conversion rate is as high as 12%, you can see that they all completed the shooting at the place where they shot: the average shooting distance is 15.1 meters.

Solve the problem of difficulty in shooting: the ability to create opportunities

Can we find problems now? The rare problem of Manchester United scoring goals is actually two aspects: poor shooting conversion rate and few shots. The key to the two is: it is difficult for Manchester United to hit the ball into the penalty area, that is, it is difficult for Manchester United to create offensive opportunities, and it depends more on the inward cutting of the left winger and the long shot from B to the outside.

Whether you admit it or not, this is the problem of Manchester United's difficulty in attacking. For many consecutive seasons, B fee is the player with the most opportunities in the Premier League. The data is concentrated on B fee, which just shows one question: What about other Manchester United players' ability to create offensive opportunities? So, the point I have always adhered to is: If you want to solve the problem of rare goals, you need to solve the problem of creating opportunities first. Who will create goals except for B fee? That is, who will assist?

The only one who assisted in the Premier League this season was B Fee + Diallo; the only one who assisted in Manchester United more than 5 times last season was B Fee; the only one who assisted in Manchester United more than 5 times in the previous season was B Fee + Erikson + Rashford. Manchester United had third place this season, and Rashford had more than 30 goals in all competitions in the season.

Therefore, Manchester United's signings this season must solve the problem of rare goals, and two problems must be solved: first, who will score the goal, and second, who will assist. If Manchester United continues to only get assists with B fees, then Manchester United's results next season will be like that.

Mar United's offensive end problem: never completely reorganized the front line

Let's put it this way, Manchester United has never completely reorganized the front line in the post-Ferguson era, and they are repairing and repairing the previous head coach. During the Moyes period, he signed Chelsea's assist king Juan Mata as a supplement, while during the van Gaal period, he signed Martial, Depp and others as a supplement. The same was true during the periods of Mourinho, Socho and Tenghach. They basically repaired the sewing, rather than replacing all the main tridents of the front line at one time. From a very early stage, Manchester United formed a situation where the left offense was strong and the right offense was weak. Every head coach tried to solve this problem. Bundesliga assist King Mkhitaryan, Bundesliga assist King Sancho, and Dutch Eredivisie Anthony were all won to repair the right offensive defects.

Do you find out that in the post-Ferguson era, the right-wing offensive players Manchester United is actually more organized. Even the type of assisting with the ball in the ribs. This is actually Manchester United's previous head coaches. In order to solve the attempt to avoid shooting distances and shorten the shooting distance, you need someone to hold the ball at the front of the penalty area, and then pass directly in this area to allow other players to enter the penalty area and shoot.

Look at the picture above. In the Europa League final, the gap in Manchester United touching the ball in the penalty area and at the front of the penalty area is enough to show that Manchester United's difficulty in scoring is the shooting place. First, your front midfielder can hold the ball at the front of the penalty area, and second, your winger and center can penetrate the ribs. You can compare Cunia's shooting and assist position charts with Wolves.

Therefore, taking Cunha with 62.5 million pounds is considered a relatively counterpoint choice. Secondly, the Mbeumo and the original Diallo that Manchester United are talking about can be crossed by pulling the side and the bottom. Next, Manchester United will get a center.

200 million pounds of transfer investment is a considerable expense for Manchester United this season, so the Champions League team will invest so much, while Manchester United will not have European combat tasks next season. This is also a determination, I hope it can have good results. After all, many things in Manchester United are theoretically the same, but after coming to Manchester United, it is another matter.